Oscar Prognostication

Every snivelling bitch in the movie blog community has been writing up Oscar nomination predictions, each one with a certain level of emotion tied to it. In recent days, we’ve had Josh Tyler’s rant over at Cinema Blend, Eugene Novikov’s response over at Cinematical, and a less threatening set of picks from my buddy Matt Holmes over at Obsessed With Film … but what did you really expect from him? He’s British. Some people, like Nathaniel over at The Film Experience, have been predicting this year’s Oscar winners since the end of last year’s telecast.

It gets a little crazy sometimes. So, in the spirit of a new American regime Presidency, I’m going to throw my two cents into the wishing well, and see what comes of it.

BEST PICTURE

I have this crazy feeling that we’re going to see The Reader and Revolutionary Road nominated for Best Picture. For a while, I think the Kate Winslet factor was making it an either/or choice, but the buzz continues to build for Reader. I bet the picks are as follows:

• Revolutionary Road
• The Reader
• Frost/Nixon
• Slumdog Millionaire
• The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Benjamin Button does not belong on this ballot, and neither does Frost/Nixon for that matter. I get slightly ill imagining this field without The Wrestler in it. Hopefully the Academy pulls its head out of its collective ass and gives The Wrestler its just due. Milk should probably be in here as well.

BEST DIRECTOR

In my mind, this is a one-horse race … but I’m not even sure the Academy will nominate him.

• Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler
• Gus Van Sant for Milk
• Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry for The Reader
• David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Aronofsky deserves the win hands down. We shall see if he even gets the nom for this brilliant film. Meanwhile, Fincher is being overpraised for Button, his worst film since Alien 3. You just watch … I bet Aronofsky gets snubbed in favor of Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road.

BEST ACTOR

It’s a two horse race, with a third coming close but just short.

• Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road
• Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
• Sean Penn for Milk
• Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
• Either Josh Brolin for W. or Benicio Del Toro for Che

This is Rourke’s to lose, although cases could be made for both Penn, Langella, and DiCaprio. Still, Rourke wins easily here. If fucking Clint Eastwood gets a Best Actor nomination, I swear I am going to follow through on Lex Luthor’s plans to nuke California. I get it … he’s old, he might die at any moment, and he’s a legend. SO FUCKING WHAT. The performance is his same old routine he’s been trotting out since Unforgiven, except that he growls more in this one. Yay.

BEST ACTRESS

Here comes Kate!

• Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road
• Meryl Streep for Doubt
• Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
• Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
• Kristin Scott Thomas in I’ve Loved You So Long

Winslet is nearly assured of the win here, although Hathaway continues to gain steam. Blanchett doesn’t even deserve consideration, really. From what I’ve heard, Scott Thomas is the deserving one in a tiny little picture that nobody’s seen … and we know what that means.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Does this one even matter? We all know that winner here.

• Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
• Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder
• Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road
• Philip Seymour Hoffmann in Doubt
• not sure here

Heath wins by a landslide. Robert Downey Jr. was just as good, though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Viola Davis in Doubt
• Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
• Kate Winslet in The Reader
• Taraji Henson in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
• Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona

Davis has one scene, and she is devastating … particularly against Streep’s overly-mannered performance. Tomei is brilliant in The Wrestler. Henson is also great. I don’t think you’re going to see a Winslet double dip at the Oscars.

Of the other categories, I think these are absolute shoo-ins for a nomination or the win:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Vicky Christina Barcelona and The Wrestler need to be in here. We might see Happy-Go-Lucky here, too. I will take hostages if that fucking piece of horseshit Gran Torino gets in here. It doesn’t deserve to be used as toilet paper, let alone a nomination.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Basically this will be a recap of most of the Best Picture nominees … Doubt, Slumdog Millionaire, Revolutionary Road, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Slumdog probably deserves this one.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Dark Knight belongs in here. So does Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt.

BEST SOUND / SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Face it … they’re almost the same category. The Dark Knight easily goes here. You could make a case for Benjamin Button and Iron Man. However, I think WALL-E deserves both awards hands down. I’m not a fan of Ben Burtt after he destroyed the Star Wars prequels, but he did an unparalleled job here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Oh man, I hope Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull wins it for making me believe a man can survive a nuclear blast in a fridge!!

Seriously, Button probably deserves a nom, as well as Iron Man and The Dark Knight.

So there you have it … my humble predictions. Let the teeth gnashing begin!!!